Despite the steep rise in Covid-19 infections in China and intensified security along the China-North Korea border, the number of defections recorded has also increased as North Korea continues to self-isolate. Earlier last month, a soldier in his early 20s who had reportedly been starving due to poor rations in the army convinced his cousin, who was unemployed and in his late 20s, to risk their lives and defect to China. The two young men were caught by a border patrol while crossing Yalu River into China. The older cousin was sent to a forced labor camp while the younger was punished more severely and sent to a political prison camp for initiating the defection as a military man.

COVID IN THE ‘OPENED-UP’ CHINA

Following China’s decision to lift its stringent zero-Covid policies, a leaked ministerial document from the National Health Commission dated December 20, 2022, revealed that around 250 million people (around 17.65 percent of China’s population) may have been infected since the beginning of December 1, 2022. An unprecedented number of deaths resulting from Covid-19 infections – as many as 5,000 per day – was estimated by U.K.-based research firm, Airfinity. According to a doctor in Shanghai, 70 percent of the Shanghai population has likely been infected as of the beginning of January 2023. Meanwhile, funeral parlors in Beijing were reportedly working around the clock and dealing with five times the usual number of cremations, with one employee telling Radio Free Asia that, “There is no space here … our cold storage is full and there is nowhere to put [any more bodies]. We’re cremating 180 people a day.”

Shortly after South Korea imposed mandatory PCR tests on Chinese arrivals, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency announced that 22.7 percent of all arrivals from China were infected with Covid-19. More notably, a Chinese national who tested positive for Covid-19 was found missing after arriving at Incheon International Airport awaiting admission to quarantine. Authorities began searching for the missing person, who could face up to one year in prison or 10 million won ($7,840 USD) in fines.

SUCCESSFUL DEFECTIONS

North Korean border patrols are specifically tasked with arresting anyone who attempts to defect or smuggle into China. However, collusion between guards and brokers help explain the many successful escapes in the China-North Korea border region. A source from Daily NK described a defection case of a woman in her early 40s from Hyesan, Yanggang Province, who managed to reach Changbai in Jilin Province last November after bribing her way out of an arrest by the authorities. The source added that an average bribe amounts to around 5,000 RMB ($718 USD), but soldiers sometimes accept less as they also face financial difficulties during the lockdown.

It is worth noting that North Koreans are not the only ones fleeing their country due to economic hardship resulting from draconian Covid-19 prevention measures. According to the Panamanian government, at least 1,300 migrants from China entered in 2022 to trek through the dangerous, roadless Central American rainforest up to the U.S. southern border in search for a better life.

SMUGGLING ACTIVITIES ON THE RISE

North Korean smugglers are known to trade a variety of goods to China, including medicinal herbs and even expensive minerals like copper and gold, for as little as RMB 2,000 ($286 USD).

Amidst rising smuggling activities along the coastal regions of the border, a Chinese patrol boat had reportedly fired rubber bullets on a North Korean boat carrying five or six North Koreans as it fled back to the North during a smuggling operation in late November 2022. A source told Daily NK that the involvement of a North Korean patrol boat suggests that border guards, who should have been cracking down on the very activity they were performing, attempted to deal smuggled goods in their own capacity. All crew members received punishments and the captain would likely face a severe sentence as a result of this incident.