During a year-end party meeting, North Korea’s leader warned the nation to prepare for further economic hardships in 2024 and gave orders to accelerate war preparations against the U.S. Kim Jong-un encouraged his people to wage a “more courageous and resolute struggle despite the ever-increasing challenges and difficulties” in the new year. In light of upcoming general elections in the U.S. and South Korea, it is speculated that the North will likely carry out “military provocations or cyber attacks” as the two countries channel their time and energy into fighting internal political battles. 

According to South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, Pyongyang has historically carried out a series of provocations ahead of important political events, including conducting a fourth nuclear test and launching a long-range missile mere months before the South Korean parliamentary election in April 2016.

KIM JONG-UN'S NEW ORDERS

Addressing 2023 as “a year of great turning point” for North Korea that “has left a great trace in the glorious path of development to improve national power and increase the prestige of the country,” Kim praised the nation’s progress in the development of new strategic weapons. Kim highlighted his kingdom’s possession of “space reconnaissance means” after the first military spy satellite was launched and also declared that Pyongyang has institutionalized the path to developing a nuclear arsenal following its constitutional amendment passed in September 2023. Despite receiving criticisms from the U.S. and its allies, the North reiterated that its military reconnaissance satellite launch is a sovereign right that should not be restrained by outside forces.

Kim further pledged to expand strategic cooperation with “anti-imperialist independent’ countries, such as Russia, as Washington has been accusing Pyongyang of supplying military equipment to Moscow in support of its war with Ukraine and in exchange of Russia providing technical support to advance the North’s military capabilities. The revival of their partnership was sparked by the summit between Kim and Russian President, Vladimir Putin, on September 13, 2023. Considering North Korea’s social isolation and economic hardship caused by international sanctions imposed by the U.S. and United Nations, Moscow’s support in what is believed to include cash, energy and weapons technologies transfers would be vital to Pyongyang’s survival. North Korea has suffered serious food shortages in recent decades as a result of natural disasters. Experts have also warned that border closures during the pandemic worsened food security.

SOUTH KOREA RECIPROCATES WAR PREPARATIONS

Recently, military drills were carried out in South Korea shortly after Seoul imposed new sanctions on eight North Koreans linked to nuclear and missile programs through arms trade, cyberattacks and other illicit activities. More than 1,000 South Korean military personnel took part in rare defense drills that simulated an attack by North Korea on Seoul, which is situated in striking distance of Pyongyang’s weapons and covert attack of just 38 km (24 miles). The drills mimicked attacks on the South’s major water supply facility, telephone network stations and an underground communications and power cable corridor.

The exercise is believed to be a response to the heightened tension between the Koreas after the North tested an intercontinental ballistic missile. The drills also came at a time when more than 1,200 people were killed in a recent attack in Israel, as Seoul’s mayor, Oh Se-hoon, described that “There was a big lesson for us when Israel’s world-class advanced defense system helplessly buckled under a surprise attack by Hamas armed with conventional artillery and primitive means.” Although there has been no direct attack on the South by the North since the end of the Korean War in 1953, Oh has openly voiced out his opinion that South Korea should possess its own nuclear weapons in order to neutralize the threat from its northern neighbor. Nevertheless, South Korean President, Yoon Suk-yeol, ruled out the possibility of owning nuclear weapons, and instead emphasized on fostering a military alliance with the U.S. and restoring security ties with Japan.

Kim Jong-un went as far as declaring that reunification between the two Koreas was “impossible” as he closed out 2023 during the annual end-of-year meeting of the ruling Workers' Party's Central Committee. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are expected to escalate in 2024 as the two countries are no longer bound by the 2018 military agreement that halted military activities near the inter-Korean borders.