Kim Jong Un disappeared for much of the month of April. He did not attend the country’s most important holiday celebration to honor the birth of his grandfather, Kim Il Sung— the founding father, king and god of North Korea. And when he missed an important military parade, rumors began to fly regarding his whereabouts.
Did he have a heart attack? Was he comatose from an alleged botched heart surgery? Was he hiding in his luxurious coastal home from the Coronavirus? Did he suffer a leg injury? No one knew for sure and for a moment, Kim Jong Un stole the world’s attention away from the Coronavirus, quite a feat for the leader of the 115th largest economy in the world.
Though it is difficult to know what happened to Kim, the bizarre weeks of speculation did reveal to the world some key truths about North Korea. Here are three things that we learned from the Kim Jong Un rumors:
1. There is no known succession plan in North Korea
If the rumors were true, North Korea would have been thrown into a crisis. Kim’s death would leave a seat of absolute power up for grabs with plenty of willing takers.
A nightmare scenario for the world would have been a power struggle for the throne. Sure, North Korea could simply implode as their leadership jockeys for a place at the top of the totem pole. But this is just one possibility; the others could spell disaster for the North Korean people, the Korean peninsula, East Asia and possibly spark a world war.
The Korean Peninsula was already in a tense 70-year military standoff. If a power struggle spilled over into the South, the United States would surely get involved and China would come to the North’s aid. It would be plausible that most of the world would be involved in the conflict.
The lack of succession plan exposed a gaping hole in North Korea that could spell disaster if Kim’s demise comes sooner rather than later.
2. North Korea is a black box
The Coronavirus crisis has also reached the Hermit Kingdom and the already reclusive country has closed off many of its ties to the outside world. Under normal circumstances, North Korean refugees with family members inside North Korea could send letters and money to their loved ones through a network of smugglers. The current circumstances have all but stopped this flow of information and money.
The Daily NK relies on reports from everyday North Koreans embedded within the country. The publication has reported that North Korea is even cracking down on these illegal phone calls, which use phones connected to Chinese cell towers.
But within the black box of North Korea lies another, even more secretive entity: the North Korean government.
On April 20, the Daily NK reported that Kim had a botched cardiovascular procedure and was in critical condition. Soon after, CNN and Reuters picked up the story. Defector Yeonmi Park, a North Korean defector said on her Instagram page that Kim was hiding in his compound to avoid catching COVID-19. South Korea soon claimed with certainty that Kim was “alive and well.”
But there is a fundamental problem with all of these rumors: how could anyone verify the many rumors? North Korea remained mum on the situation, tacitly adding fuel to the flame.
North Korea is the most confidential regime in the world. A leak in information could mean the execution of any official suspected of the offense. And how would an official leak information to the press? A North Korean cannot simply pick up their phone and call CNN. Even if information did leak, how would a respectable journalist verify it?
There are few ways for people to obtain reliable information from North Korea and most of these channels are regulated by the North Korean government.
3. Rumors are swirling within North Korea
As the world wondered about the demise of Kim, an interesting video from North Korea emerged. It actually proved to be fake but the fact that it caught the attention of the regime itself was interesting in itself.
The fake video was a collection of news footage that seemingly confirmed the rumors of Kim’s demise. What made the video somewhat plausible was the spot-on imitation of the voice of the North Korean news announcer Ri Chun Hee delivering the news.
Apparently, the video had circulated so widely within North Korea that the regime began to look for the person who produced it, according to the Daily NK.
There was also the matter of panic-buying in Pyongyang. It was reported by the Washington Post that residents of North Korea’s capital city Pyongyang started to panic-buy foreign goods and essentials because of the rumors of Kim’s death.
What these two incidents show us is that it is possible for information to spread within North Korea. Though phone calls are monitored and letters sent through official channels are often read, somehow rumors are spreading within North Korea— and that’s a good thing.
For there to be any hope of regime change from within, the North Korean people need to rise up against its government. And for this to happen, there must be a reliable chain of communication that occurs outside the sight of the North Korean government.
If these rumors were indeed spreading, could there be channels of communication that are completely unregulated?
On May 2, Kim made an appearance at a fertilizer factory, effectively squashing the rumors. This should not have come as a surprise. There have been a great number of rumors out of North Korea over the years, most of which have proved to be false. But North Korea is so opaque that even false news reveals key information about the regime.
Until there is real change in North Korea, all we have are rumors and conjecture. Ultimately, we hope for a day when these will end.
