No Tokyo: North Korea will not be attending the 2021 Olympics.
North Korea declared through its Olympic committee that “The committee decided not to join the 32nd Olympic Games to protect athletes from the global health crisis caused by the coronavirus.”
The decision may be motivated by two factors:
North Korea may truly be paranoid about the COVID-19 pandemic, further revealing that nation’s inability to respond to the virus within the country, while still claiming zero infections.
North Korea’s response may have been influenced by Japan’s recent decision to extend sanctions on North Korea for two more years.
Learn More:
https://www.insider.com/north-korea-quits-tokyo-olympics-after-japan-extends-sanctions-2021-4
Kim Jong Un acknowledges failures: North Korean is in an economic crisis.
Kim Jong Un addressed party members in a political conference this month and stated that the nation was facing its “worst-ever situation.”
Kim is likely referring to the catastrophic failure of his five-year plan introduced in May 2016 that promised to bring North Korea to economic independence.
Experts are referring to North Korea’s current economic crisis in the pandemic as “the Great Leap Backwards” as the nation is struggling to respond to fears of economic collapse, complete loss of food security, and inability to vaccinate its 25 million citizens.
“Following a triple hit from the strict border closures, economic sanctions and devastating flooding last year, the economy is suffering its worst decline since famine killed millions of people in the mid-1990s” - The Financial Times
Kim Jong Un has stated the current crisis is the result of the party’s smallest units of administration and management, and has accused this network of party authorities of “shortcomings.”
Learn More:
https://www.crossingbordersnk.org/blog/could-north-korea-be-headed-towards-another-famine/2021/1/12
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kim-jong-un-north-korea-worst-ever-situation/
https://www.ft.com/content/49dd499f-e7a1-4dd1-9803-9702fbc52f11
Missiles are back in the air: North Korea begins 2021 weapon tests.
In late March, North Korea launched its first set of ballistic missiles in 2021, testing rockets with guiding technology.
North Korean Official Ri Pyong Chol stated that the weapon’s development was “of great significance in bolstering up the military power of the country and deterring all sorts of military threats existing on the Korean Peninsula.”
President Biden stated in response to the missile tests: “... there will be responses if they choose to escalate. We will respond accordingly. But I’m also prepared for some form of diplomacy, but it has to be conditioned upon the end result of denuclearization.”
It is possible that the weapons test was to further emphasize the warning issued by Kim Yo Jong, sister to Kim Jong Un, regarding planned joint military exercises with South Korea.
Learn More:
https://www.crossingbordersnk.org/blog/north-koreas-missile-tests/2021/2/16
Brewing nuclear tension: North Korean nuclear labs show further activity
The latest satellite imagery of North Korean nuclear sites show steam and smoke being emitted from the Yongbyon Radiochemistry Laboratory in North Korea, a plant that is used to extract plutonium for nuclear bombs.
In consideration of the reactivated nuclear plant and the missiles tested in March, the efforts may be in an effort to force President Biden to the table for diplomatic discussions.
“It is a series of escalations. I think it's pretty calculated. They're ratcheting up pressure as they had done to President Trump and to President Obama.” - Victor Cha, Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
Learn More:
China and the Balancing Act
One of China’s greatest cultural wonders is its history in acrobatics, as home to some of the most talented and athletic performers in the world. But perhaps no performer in China is nearly as capable, powerful, or impressive as the Chinese Communist Party.
Biden Administration’s Tightrope to North Korea
“Beijing has an interest, a clear self-interest, in helping to pursue the denuclearization of [North Korea] because it is a source of instability.” - Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken in Seoul, South Korea in March 2021
China’s leading diplomats Yang Jiechi and Wang Yi met with Secretary Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan in Anchorage, Alaska in their first high-level diplomatic meeting.
The resulting combative and contentious meeting between the two parties resulted in a series of accusations that the Chinese officials described as “exaggerated diplomatic presentations” and the American representatives claimed were “public theatrics and dramatics over substance.”
Nevertheless, with growing tensions over missile tests and nuclear armament on the Korean Peninsula, United States diplomats such as Secretary Blinken have stated explicitly that while China remains America’s “biggest geopolitical test of the 21st century,” Beijing simultaneously “has a critical role to play” in the efforts to reach out to Pyongyang.
Frank Aum, a North Korea expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace states, “It’s reasonable to try and enlist China’s support, given its political and economic relationship with North Korea and its overall heft in the region.”
As concerns regarding North Korea’s provocations grow, the Biden administration faces the challenge of criticizing China’s ongoing expansionist and autocratic policies while persuading the same country to aid its efforts in stabilizing a nuclearizing nation.
North Korea’s Wavering Lifeline
“All parties should work together to sustain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula… China will continue to play a constructive role in this process.” - Spokesman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Zhao Lijian
In January of 2020, China closed its border to North Korea, effectively crippling a nation on life support, almost entirely dependent on the flow of trade and goods supplied by Beijing. Without China’s support, North Korea entered a state of economic freefall.
Over a year later, recent news has confirmed that the Chinese border city of Dandong has prepared inspections, quarantine facilities, and customs offices to resume trade with North Korean trains that will cross the border. Further information has revealed that the trains that will be shuttled into the city will only include freight, with no passenger cars. Exports to North Korea will be building materials, essential goods, food, and infant formula.
Questions may arise as to why China continues to bolster an isolationist country that acts as a source of insecurity and tension in the region. Analysts who assess this same question propose that China’s focus is a careful balance. To maintain the status quo, China must guarantee two elements:
North Korea cannot become so unstable that it risks American expansion on the Korean Peninsula or uncontrolled destabilization.
North Korea cannot grow so provocative and emboldened that the United States is compelled to increase its military presence in East Asia.
While Beijing cannot simply cripple North Korea into a collapsing state or source of chaos. Simultaneously, China cannot simply deny assistance to the United States in talks to denuclearize North Korea, thereby instigating nondiplomatic intervention.
Learn More:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/18/world/asia/biden-north-korea-china.html
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/18/china-us-alaska-meeting-undiplomatic-477118
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/trade-03312021200341.html
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-04-02/chinas-dangerous-double-game-north-korea
