In the first part of our coverage of recent relations between North Korea and the US, we focused mainly on Kim Jong Un’s predictably erratic actions over the past four years.
The questions that political analysts have regarding the Biden Administration’s approach to North Korea cannot be summed up simply into a binary of “to be Trump, or not to be Trump.” There are several possibilities, a few of which analysts have explored.
Scenario one: Biden will build on Trump’s diplomatic results.
The CATO Institute and The National Interest recently published a paper composed by a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and specialist in foreign policy, Doug Bandow, on how Biden may be able to further a single powerful strategy of the Trump administration in negotiating with North Korea: diplomatic ties with China. A better relationship with Beijing, according to Bandow, may result in cooperation in establishing red lines on North Korea’s ongoing nuclearization and armament. China, who does not want an erratic and unpredictable nuclear neighbor, is still North Korea’s greatest ally and lifeline. While the Trump administration’s demands for China to simply enforce its sanctions on North Korea were not effective and Trump’s relations with Xi Jinping, President of China, bottomed out at the end of his term, there may be avenues for Biden to negotiate.
Scenario two: Biden will return to a traditional approach to North Korea.
While a traditional approach to North Korea would not entirely rule out the possibility that the Biden administration will build on the Trump administration’s attempts to negotiate through China, Biden may not directly ingratiate himself with North Korea’s leaders in the same method shown by former President Trump. According to a series on nuclear diplomacy from the United States Institute of Peace, Biden may return to “principled diplomacy” exercised by presidents prior to Trump with expectations that direct negotiations with North Korea will not yield predictable or promised results. North Korea is unlikely to approach the United States with the precondition that disarmament and denuclearization must be on the table. The Biden administration may equally be unwilling to create a forum for discussing concessions in sanctions against North Korea without these exact preconditions. While not provocative, this approach would be considered a stalemate.
Scenario three: COVID Diplomacy and a “Peace Offensive”
A “peace offensive” is a term used to describe a campaign that is designed to clearly communicate intentions to resolve conflicts by a nation, thus causing its unfriendly counterpart to relax its own efforts toward violence. In the case between the United States and North Korea, much of this may hinge on North Korea’s desperate attempts to gain access to COVID-19 vaccines.
According to the Brookings Institute, it is likely that North Korea is suffering from COVID-19 outbreaks that will soon heighten the country’s need for relief from trade sanctions. The nation will need economic assistance. North Korea’s needs may open the door for American diplomacy to become a more attractive option. Recent reports have also revealed that at least six pharmaceutical companies in the US, UK, and South Korea may have become targets for North Korean hackers seeking information on COVID-19 treatments. This may be because information on the vaccine is simply valuable internationally or the regime believes that the vaccines would be useful for the nation.
A rare opportunity
“COVID diplomacy” and a “peace offensive” may go hand in hand as the Biden administration finds a rare opportunity for engagement with North Korea in the midst of this health crisis. Biden’s approach to international politics may be solidified through both reparations of mistrust and simple decency. Outside support for treatment capacity, access to vaccination, and health security will be needed to ensure that the nation survives this global disaster. With medical supplies and the possible relief from sanctions, North Korea may be finally willing to come to the negotiating table.
Related Posts
Part 1: An Unpredictable Threat to President Biden: North Korean Diplomacy
North Korea: a Nation Built on Rhetoric
Hot and Cold: North Korea’s Shifting Diplomatic Tone in 2018
