The sitting leaders of North Korea and the United States had never met face-to-face prior to June 12, 2018. The purpose of their first meeting in 2018 was to establish a long-term relationship to build lasting peace in East Asia. President Trump described the summit as a monumental success. He was not alone. President Trump was later nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize by both Japanese Prime Minister Abe and South Korean President Moon Jae-in for his conduct at a historic summit.
George Stephanopoulos, sat with President Donald Trump moments after his historic meeting with Kim Jong Un. Stephanopoulos asked a series of questions focusing on North Korea’s weapons.
“Is [Kim Jong Un] going to stop testing,” Stephanopoulos referred to North Korean ballistic missile launches. The North Korean leader tested 10 missiles throughout 2017, a record for the country.
The President’s answer for Stephanopoulos was sure and confident. "He’s committed to not starting again. That won’t be happening. He means it."
But since Trump and Kim’s initial summit in Singapore, North Korea has been launching missiles and reviving old test sites that they destroyed. Accusations have been lobbed by both sides at each other’s negotiators. All while the US sanctions have choked North Korea of its resources. North Korea’s next move is unclear but the country seems to be shifting strategy.
When President Trump and Kim Jong Un held a second summit in Vietnam in February of 2019, both leaders left the negotiation table early without signing planned joint statements. Agreeable terms on denuclearization and sanctions could not be reached by either side. Disagreement seems to be cementing on both sides. North Korea, meanwhile seems to be restoring the very same rocket launch facilities it disarmed following recent discussions with the US. The production of fissile nuclear material, in addition, seems to have never stopped in 2018 or 2019.
As of October 2019, the North Korean government conducted 18 missile tests on nine separate occasions following the meeting between the leaders. The latest missile, launched in early October, showed signs of improving missile technology. Ankit Panda, a North Korean analyst, stated to the BBC, “North Korea's introduction of the Pukguksong-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile is a grave moment for North East Asian regional security - and a reminder of what has been lost over nearly two years of all-show-no-substance diplomacy.” The recent weapon tests and diplomatic failures have further launched a series of accusations and verbal conflicts between American and North Korean envoys not unlike the exchanges between Trump and Kim Jong Un in 2017.
As North’s chief nuclear negotiator Kim Myong Gil stated to the international community, “The US raised expectations by offering suggestions like a flexible approach... but they have disappointed us greatly and dampened our enthusiasm for negotiation by bringing nothing to the negotiation table.” According to Kim Myong Gil’s ominous frustrations, “the fate of the future [North Korea]-US dialogue depends on the US attitude, and the end of this year is its deadline.”
State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus claimed the contrary, stating that American representatives had attempted their best to begin the resolution to seven decades of conflict and disagreement. “The U.S. brought creative ideas and had good discussions,” he noted, following a failed meeting with North Korean officials.
Whether or not the claims of American diplomats’ regarding their willingness to negotiate are true or false, North Korean representatives abruptly left a summit held in Stockholm in the week following North Korea’s recent missile test expressing extreme and public frustration. North Korea's UN Ambassador Kim Song accused the United States of poisoning the United Nations Security Council with hostile attempts to usurp their sovereignty. Such attempts, he stated, would be met with “self-defensive measures.”
The immediate future of the diplomacy between North Korea and the United States remains unclear. Without having made any real concessions, North Korean leaders seem to have placed President Trump and United States leaders into a precarious position. Further refusal to give into North Korean demands could lead to more missile launches, even a nuclear test. American negotiators would be accused for their rigidity and lack of diplomacy. On the other hand, American willingness to concede sanctions or cancel military exercises due to threats and disagreement (as in May of 2018) may be perceived as weakness negotiation tactics, bent by North Korean displays of force.
On October 16th, Kim Jong Un rode a white horse to the snowy summit of Mount Paektu, a site of sacred significance to North Korea. The public and televised event was a symbolic act of power and self-reliance. The North Korean national news agency, KCNA, broadcasted the event with a promise there would be “a great operation to strike the world with wonder again and make a step forward in the Korean revolution."
The act could symbolize peace, as it did prior to Kim Jong Un’s wooing of President Trump on the international stage in 2018. It could also indicate the beginnings of North Korea’s intention to once more dedicate itself to launching more missiles, testing more nuclear explosives, as in 2017.
Watching the North Korean broadcast of Kim Jong Un, alone and surrounded by the icy mountains atop his horse, no one could know his plans, only guess and wait.
“Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.”- Sun Tzu, The Art of War
